"Coal to gas" exaggerated hype thread production has little impact
this week, Tangshan thread rose by about 100 yuan. The reason why the price rise is so large is that "Tangshan steel plant or due to the requirements of coal to gas, the manufacturer centralized maintenance on September 1, the market is out of stock" the news spread, when the rise rate is too fast, the market hype, thread prices rise. It is understood that the deadline for the coal to gas transformation of the billet mixing and rolling mills in Tangshan will be completed by the end of September as originally planned, and will be completed before September 1. The transformation period of the manufacturers that started the transformation is mostly days, and some of them have been in the rectification time of the coal and gas dual-purpose manufacturers. It is also reported that after the transformation, it will be accepted by relevant departments and allowed to resume normal production after passing the acceptance. In response to this "explosive", a series of investigations have been carried out on the steel enterprises of building materials Blank adjustment, and the specific analysis is as follows:
according to the investigation, among the 9 enterprises of building materials Blank adjustment and rolling, 2 steel plants have completed the transformation of natural gas pipeline equipment, involving 3 thread rolling lines; There are two natural gas pipelines originally, involving three thread rolling lines; At present, there are 5 steel plants undergoing coal to gas transformation, involving 6 thread production lines, affecting the daily output of 10900 tons/day. As the outside world said, Tangshan rolling enterprises all stopped production on September 1, and the market will be out of stock
current situation of coal to gas conversion in steel plants
from the moment the document of coal to gas conversion was issued, some billet adjustment enterprises began the rectification of natural gas pipelines. In addition, some steel plants were originally dual-use gas, and now they only need to dismantle the original coal equipment, which took about days. There are also some steel plants' staged hype and transformation, which did not focus on maintenance, and the steel plants in the early stage have more inventory, so the available shipment volume was not much affected. Therefore, the hype of public opinion about "changing coal to gas causes centralized maintenance of steel plants and affects production" is exaggerated. Now public opinion affects the Tangshan market, and the thread price rose yuan/ton yesterday. The market is bullish and the shipment is OK, but the terminal demand is still sluggish
today, CISA delivered a speech: "market speculation drives the abnormal rise of raw materials, which is bound to squeeze the profits of steel enterprises that have just improved". After the coal to gas conversion is completed, the cost of building materials may increase by about yuan/ton; In addition, since the environmental protection limited production and the ban on "ground bar steel", many steel mills, which were originally medium frequency furnace enterprises, have adjusted their billets one after another, hoping to be responsible for rolling products such as better sales areas, best-selling experimental machine types, and larger customers. Because the billets are now at a high price, the cost of rolling enterprises has increased. So now, even if the thread price is high, the profit margin for the enterprises that establish the macro-control and market regulation mechanism is always not high. There are only two possibilities to ensure the high profits of steel mills. One is the price rise of finished materials, many metal materials and infrastructure, and the other is the price reduction of raw materials. But now the situation is that the prices of finished materials and raw materials have also increased, and the profits of billet adjustment steel mills have always been squeezed. If the cost does not fall, the price of finished products is difficult to decline significantly. In addition, after entering September, the steel demand season gradually arrives, and the price may continue to rise
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