The hottest rubber price oscillations fall, and th

2022-08-13
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The demand support is expected to rise

in November, the Shanghai rubber futures price generally showed a trend of rising and falling. The main March contract hit a monthly high of 23780 yuan on November 1. Subsequently, the futures price oscillated downward, reaching a low of 20505 yuan on the 20th at the most. The futures price rebounded after hitting the bottom, but was blocked at the line of 22000 yuan. As of November 30, the closing price was 21980 yuan. Compared with the closing price at the end of October, the monthly futures price fell by 1150 yuan/ton, or 5%. In the same period, the trend of rising and falling of Japanese rubber is more obvious than that of Shanghai rubber. The intramonth high occurred on November 7, when the price surged to 312.2 yen/kg. Similarly, it hit a monthly low of 263 yen on the 20th. Subsequently, the futures price rebounded and consolidated at the line of 270 yen. As of November 30, the closing price was 273.8 yen. Compared with the closing price at the end of October, the futures price in the month fell by 18.6 yen/kg, or 6.4%

Shanghai Jiao

daily trend chart of Shanghai Jiao. (source: Beijing mid term)

Japanese glue

Japanese glue daily trend chart. (source: Beijing medium term)

in September and October before, the price of Tianjiao futures showed a unilateral upward trend. At the beginning of November, with the cooperation of crude oil, gold and other surrounding markets, the Japanese glue successfully hit the 300 yen mark with the help of the push up of long funds, and hit the high point in January 312.2

however, the impact of the US subprime crisis soon spread to the entire financial market again, including the stock market, exchange rate and commodity markets. Crude oil, gold and other commodities rose and fell quickly. At the same time, the rainfall in the main production areas of natural rubber such as Thailand began to decrease. The emergence of these factors made the high rubber price fall back. At the same time, a large number of speculative funds closed their positions before, intensifying the decline of Japanese glue. There were three limit falls in five trading days. It was not until it fell to 270 yen that it was supported, and then consolidation was carried out

in the latter ten days of the year, although crude oil once again hit the 100 yuan test mark, the rubber market did not rise due to the expected increase in supply and the appreciation of the yen. Continue to consolidate between the yen, waiting for the guidance of the market. In the same period, the trend of Shanghai rubber is generally similar to that of Japan rubber, but the decline is relatively small. On the one hand, the domestic natural rubber production areas have successively entered the cut-off period, which makes the spot price easy to rise but difficult to fall. On the other hand, in the early rise, the growth of Shanghai rubber was far less than that of Japan rubber. For example, in October, the overall growth rate of Japanese rubber was 13.2%, while that of Shanghai rubber was only 4.2%. Therefore, the Shanghai Jiao futures price gradually rose in the latter ten days, but it was still suppressed by the line of 22000 yuan

fundamentals review and outlook

?? Production area and spot situation

in the first half of this month, the rainy season in Southeast Asia is gradually over in view of the gradual reduction of the main producing areas of natural rubber such as southern Thailand and northern Malaysia. Make the rubber cutting progress slowly return to normal. However, due to the continuous rainfall in the early stage, the inventory of natural rubber in local rubber farmers and factories continued to remain low. The pressure of increasing raw material supply due to the resumption of rubber cutting has not appeared in the short term. The spot price basically oscillated around 76 baht, except that it fell sharply with futures in the middle of the year. However, from December to early February, the main production areas in Thailand and Malaysia will enter the peak supply season. Moreover, the increase in supply in Thailand has appeared this month, and it is expected to be more obvious in December

trading trend of raw materials in three major markets in Thailand. (source: Beijing mid term)

from this round of adjustment trend, the quotation of dollar glue in the international spot market has always shown relatively strong support. In the first ten days, the quotation of Thailand No.3 cigarette glue, the mainstream glue exported to China, rose to about US $2650/ton; The quotation of Indonesia No. 20 standard glue is about US $2520/ton; The quotation of No. 20 standard glue in Malaysia is around us $2530/ton. However, with the rapid decline of the futures market, the external quotation has also declined. However, it was supported by the limited decline in raw material prices. As of the end of the month, Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries have stabilized their external quotation. The quotation of Thai No. 3 cigarette glue outer plate is about 2470 US dollars/ton; The quotation of Indonesia 20 standard glue is about 2380 US dollars/ton; The quotation of Malaysian No. 20 standard glue is around us $2430/ton

when the futures price in the domestic spot market in Qingdao free trade zone fell sharply this month, the price decline was also relatively small. Since this year, the spot market in the bonded area has continued to maintain the inventory operation, and the spot cost of traders is high. At the same time, the spot in the region is also supported by resource constraints. By the end of the month, with the stability of the market, the rubber merchants were reluctant to sell due to the shortage of resources, and the price rose slightly. The quotation of Thai No. 3 cigarette glue is about 2480 US dollars/ton; The quotation of Indonesia 20 standard glue is about 2410 US dollars/ton; Part of Malaysia

West Asia No. 20 standard glue is quoted near $2430/ton. Domestic and foreign prices have changed from the previous continuous upside down to the current basically flat

the price of imported rubber this month has always remained above US $2400, while the price of raw materials in the three central markets in Thailand is above 75 Thai strains

in the coming 2007, we see that the international natural rubber quotation forms an important support at $2000, which is $500 higher than the low of $1500 in 2006; The high point was once tested at $2600, which was almost the same as the high point of $2800 in 2006. After the correction in November, the adjustment pressure of the previous rise was released to a certain extent. Therefore, it has laid a good foundation for the future "made in China" has always been a synonym for low cost and high efficiency, and the price of natural rubber in the international market to further rise

comparison chart of price trend of imported natural rubber. (source: Beijing mid term)

the rubber price in domestic production areas basically corrected slightly with the trend of Shanghai rubber futures price. Due to the delivery of the contract in November, some of the Chen glue flowed out of the futures inventory in the middle and early days, making the market standard glue once more chaotic. However, as Yunnan began to stop cutting, the quotation of standard rubber in this region remained at a high level of yuan/ton, but the market sales were slow

comparison charts of several trends of natural rubber production areas in national standard No.1. (source: Beijing mid term)

trend chart of average transaction price and volume of Hainan latex. (source: Beijing mid term)

?? Market supply and demand

according to the forecast data of the Ministry of agriculture of Thailand, the rubber output of Thailand is expected to exceed 3million tons in 2007. The reason for the increase in production is the stimulation of the continued high price of natural rubber and the new rubber cutting area in Thailand in recent years. The output of natural rubber in Indonesia has also increased rapidly in the past two years, with an annual growth rate of about 10%. In addition, according to the data of the Ministry of agriculture of Indonesia, the output of Indonesia is expected to increase by nearly 5% to 2.765 million tons in 2007. However, the high price of natural rubber products in recent years has also increased the demand for natural rubber in these countries. For example, Indonesia's domestic consumption accounted for 13.5% of its total output in 2006. The rubber processing industry in Malaysia is also growing rapidly

in addition to the above three major producers, the continuous rise in the price of natural rubber in recent years has also stimulated Vietnam, India, Cambodia, Myanmar and other East and South Asian countries to expand the planting scale of natural rubber in their own countries in the past few years. According to the General Administration of statistics of Vietnam, Vietnam estimated the export of rubber in November. 7. Curve traversal: 80000 tons of rubber after the completion of the experiment, an increase of 37.9% over the same period last year. In June, Vietnam estimated that it had exported 648000 tons of rubber, an increase of 1.6% over the same period last year, and the export volume increased by 5.3% over the same period last year. At the same time, the Indian Ministry of rubber also said that India's natural rubber production in November was 106000 tons, an increase of 11% over the same period last year

China is the world's largest consumer of natural rubber, accounting for more than 20% of the world's total output. China's consumption situation affects the consumption pattern of natural rubber in the world. It is estimated that the production of natural rubber in China is expected to reach about 600000 tons this year. Preliminary data released by the General Administration of Customs on November 15 showed that China imported 15.68 tons of natural rubber in October. China's monthly imports of natural rubber totaled 1.35 million tons, an increase of 2.3% over the same period last year. At the same time, the Customs announced that China imported 105000 tons of synthetic rubber in October, with a total monthly import of 1.163 million tons, an increase of 4.7% year-on-year

in recent years, China's tire and rubber industry has overcome the soaring prices of raw materials such as rubber and achieved stable, healthy and rapid development under the background of the sustainable development of the national economy. The actual consumption of rubber in China reached 4.5 million tons in 2006, an increase of 12.5% over the previous year's 4million tons, and ranked first in the world for six consecutive years. In particular, the tire industry, which consumes the most natural rubber, has maintained a steady and rapid growth in recent years, and many large tire multinational companies have set up factories in China. So that the domestic demand for natural rubber continues to rise. It is estimated that the output of natural rubber in China will reach 620000 tons in 2010. With the production bases put into operation abroad, the total output will only reach 800000 tons, which can only meet about 27% of domestic demand, which means that more than 2.2 million tons of natural rubber will be imported every year in order to achieve a balance between supply and demand

although countries have increased the planting of natural rubber, the growth cycle of natural rubber is longer and the output increases slowly. In recent years, rubber producing countries have also begun to develop their own rubber processing industry, and the demand growth rate is relatively fast. Coupled with the growth of demand in traditional large consumer countries. The increase in supply is slightly insufficient. This provides a prerequisite for the rubber price to continue to operate in the bull market cycle in the future

comparison chart of natural rubber import volume. (source: Beijing medium term)

synthetic rubber market situation

with the high crude oil price in the month, the rise in costs continues to be transmitted to the price of synthetic rubber. The price of synthetic rubber increased significantly in the month. Although the price of natural rubber fell significantly in the middle and late days, synthetic rubber continued to rise supported by the cost of upstream crude oil prices. On the one hand, it will stimulate the market demand for natural rubber. On the other hand, the strong price of synthetic rubber will also support the price of natural rubber

comparison chart of price trend of natural rubber and styrene butadiene rubber. (source: Beijing mid term)

Natural Rubber inventory

recently, the Japan Rubber Trade Association announced that as of November 20, Japan's natural rubber inventory increased by 15% to 10298 tons from 8950 tons as of November 10. Japanese rubber inventory fell to a two-year low of 7511 tons on September 30, and then began to grow steadily, up 37% so far. However, the newly released inventory is still 10% lower than 11494 tons in the same period last year. At the same time, the association also announced that the natural latex inventory in Japan was 197 tons as of November 20 and 193 tons as of November 10; The inventory of synthetic rubber was 2072 tons, compared with 1848 tons in the first 10 days

as can be seen from the figure below, Shanghai Rubber inventory once exceeded the high level of 100000 tons in the month. But near the end of the month, there was an obvious downward trend, showing that the momentum of its continuous increase was insufficient. Due to the decline of the early glue price, the contract and spot price in recent months have formed a discount, making consumer enterprises receive a large number of orders in futures; In addition, Yunnan agricultural reclamation has stopped cutting, Hainan agricultural reclamation will also stop cutting in mid and late December, and the new rubber will be on the market until April next year. Therefore, the inventory will continue to be consumed, and the expected futures price will also form a bottom due to the early inventory pressure. In terms of Southeast Asia, although the weather in Southeast Asia has improved recently, the listing of new raw materials is relatively slow, and the demand of downstream enterprises is gradually rising, so bargain hunting is active. This makes the spot decline hopeless, and will bring a certain impetus to the rise of the internal and external markets

trend chart of natural rubber inventory change in Shanghai Futures Exchange. (source: Beijing medium term)

impact of crude oil price on Tianjiao

trend chart of Shanghai Jiao, Japan Jiao and crude oil futures price. (source: Beijing medium term)

crude oil futures, as the world's largest commodity futures, has a wide impact on other futures. And it has something to do with natural rubber

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